A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
