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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.